BJP aims to secure 141 seats in the upcoming Assembly Elections in West Bengal, but faces significant challenges and fluctuating vote share against the ruling TMCThe Week News Desk
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The Week, September 05, 2025 :
With barely a year left for West Bengal to head to Assembly Elections, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to establish a foothold, and if possible, wrest power from the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC government.Of the 294, the BJP has set its eyes on 141 seats. The party was either a frontrunner or had a strong voter base in these states and believes it can seize these constituencies if it moves forward with a specific plan, according to an election analysis by Anandbazaar Patrika.
The party views 52 seats as most probable. There are also 7 seats where the BJP was behind in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but was ahead in the 2021 Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. These seats are in Purba Medinipur district, which switched from Trinamool to BJP after Shuvendu Adhikari joined the BJP at the end of 2020, the report added.
It considers 47 seats swinging, these include seats which the party won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but lost in the 2020 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
But the party’s chances of winning a large portion of the 141 seats, especially outside the ‘strong base’ and ‘swinging’ seats, are not that strong. While the BJP was ahead in those 35 seats in 2019, it could not maintain that support in 2021 and 2024. The party witnessed a dramatic decline over the years, the best performance being in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when it won 18 of the state’s 42 seats. It polled 40.6% of the vote, leading in 121 assembly constituencies. But in two years, the party’s vote share fell to below 18.5, in the 2021 assembly elections.
To achieve its goals, the BJP will have to increase both the vote share and the number of seats. The BJP’s vote share in the state has fluctuated between 38.5% and 40.6% while the Trinamool’s vote share has remained between 43.7% and 48.5%,
Reasons for poor show
One reason for the BJP’s poor show was the increase in Trinamool’s vote percentage, which increased from 43.7% to 48.5%. This restricted the BJP’s run to 75 seats. The BJP’s results in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were better than the 2021 assembly elections but no where near the 2019 results. Since 2021, the party has been plagued by multiple resignations and party switches.
The saffron camp also does not have a ‘face’ against Mamata Banerjee in the state. But, the state BJP hopes to replicate the Odisha and Delhi win where it relied on the Modi factor. The central leadership of the BJP, including Modi, will focus on riding the Modi wave to counter the TMC. ‘Strong in 60 seats, fluctuating in 46’: Decoding BJP path to power in West BengalBJP aims to secure 141 seats in the upcoming Assembly Elections in West Bengal, but faces significant challenges and fluctuating vote share against the ruling TMCThe Week News Desk By The Week News Desk Updated: September 05, 2025 12:58 IST
suvendu
LoP in the West Bengal Assembly and BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari with other party members takes part in a protest rally against TMC in Kolkata | Salil Bera
With barely a year left for West Bengal to head to Assembly Elections, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to establish a foothold, and if possible, wrest power from the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC government.
Of the 294, the BJP has set its eyes on 141 seats. The party was either a frontrunner or had a strong voter base in these states and believes it can seize these constituencies if it moves forward with a specific plan, according to an election analysis by Anandbazaar Patrika.
The party views 52 seats as most probable. There are also 7 seats where the BJP was behind in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but was ahead in the 2021 Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. These seats are in Purba Medinipur district, which switched from Trinamool to BJP after Shuvendu Adhikari joined the BJP at the end of 2020, the report added.
It considers 47 seats swinging, these include seats which the party won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but lost in the 2020 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
But the party’s chances of winning a large portion of the 141 seats, especially outside the ‘strong base’ and ‘swinging’ seats, are not that strong. While the BJP was ahead in those 35 seats in 2019, it could not maintain that support in 2021 and 2024. The party witnessed a dramatic decline over the years, the best performance being in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when it won 18 of the state’s 42 seats. It polled 40.6% of the vote, leading in 121 assembly constituencies. But in two years, the party’s vote share fell to below 18.5, in the 2021 assembly elections.
To achieve its goals, the BJP will have to increase both the vote share and the number of seats. The BJP’s vote share in the state has fluctuated between 38.5% and 40.6% while the Trinamool’s vote share has remained between 43.7% and 48.5%,
Reasons for poor show
One reason for the BJP’s poor show was the increase in Trinamool’s vote percentage, which increased from 43.7% to 48.5%. This restricted the BJP’s run to 75 seats. The BJP’s results in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were better than the 2021 assembly elections but no where near the 2019 results. Since 2021, the party has been plagued by multiple resignations and party switches.
The saffron camp also does not have a ‘face’ against Mamata Banerjee in the state. But, the state BJP hopes to replicate the Odisha and Delhi win where it relied on the Modi factor. The central leadership of the BJP, including Modi, will focus on riding the Modi wave to counter the TMC.
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