ERNEST OMOARELOJIE
The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is currently going through one of its worst times. Courtesy its self-imposed implosion, politicians whose names provide party the erstwhile edge it flaunts are finding the exit doors, leaving the once self acclaimed biggest political party in Africa battered and bruised. Although the All Progressives Congress, APC, is also having a fair share of the war against its own demons, at least, to a far lesser degree, it is however, harvesting a lot of stragglers from its erstwhile opposite headache. Yet, welcoming as the defection inflow is to the party leaders and faithful, there is a reason or two for them to act with caution as it is an admixture of prospects and problems. That is, if viewed from the standpoint of the theory of Diminishing (Marginal) Returns as propounded in basic economics. How does it relate with the subject under review.
Basically, the law posits that production will, at first, increase when a factor increases while the other factors remain unchanged. However, it will get to an optimal point where additional increase of the same factor, others remaining the unaffected, will result in progressive decline in output.
The high point of the law is that there is an optimal level of input to which any additional input will reduce the production process into an unproductive venture. For instance, when an entrepreneur combines increased capital to produce a particular item, without adding to other factors, including land and labour, production may increases at first until it gets to a point where additional or further increase, all other factors remaining the same, will result in a progressive fall in output. In other words, the addition of more of same factor of production without a corresponding addition to the other will have less positive effects as overall output will decrease.
At the behest of the Oshiomhole/Obaseki face off, a sizeable chunk of APC members took flight and berthed at the camp of the PDP where they thought they had brighter survival chances. At the moment however, the same PDP is at a crossroad being practically dead both at the state and national levels. It would require political oxygen to survival as a group. Except that political scavengers will never consider themselves as the one to provide the cylinders. They would rush to where air is free and fresher.
The party’s death knell in Edo state was first sounded when the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, declared its governorship candidate, Dr Asue Ighodalo, the lower of the 2024 governorship election.The Election Petition Tribunal went on to give the declaration a seal of approval, which was affirmed by the Appeal Court. The Supreme Court went on to seal its fate by hitting home the last nail on its coffin.
Since then, those who defected to the party while the Oshiomhole/Obaseki faceoff lasted found a good reason to trrop back in droves. As indicated earlier, while their return may look good superficially, there is an ominous tinge to it. Potentially, the development could also be the beginning of the end for the party bearing in mind the possibility that it could be the harbinger of the same implosion that created a Tsunami in the PDP if the APC leadership fails to act introspectively. This is how it may pan out.
For the now, old party members of the APC will have no reason not to be elated harvesting or accepting PDP defectors. At least, adding more members will boost the party’s chances of consolidating its winning edge over any of its rivals. But as more defectors swell the rank, elation may metamorphose into trepidation as consistent as many of the new comers have leadership and elective position seekers. It would not only challenge the but reduce the chances of consistent loyalists who will feel threatened over loss of such opportunities. Thus piched against the new comers or even against the party hiearchy, the outcome is better imagined than said. Therein lies the ides of diminishing returns.
Certainly, the off-season bye-election to fill the gap created by the exit of the governor from the upper legislative chambers may not provide the right litmus test for this possibility. Neither will the local government election scheduled for July 11, 2026. N9ne will rock the boat even though they will serve to underscore the bent of the new leadership. However, the state assembly election will provide a bit of it after which the real thing will come to the fore in 2027 when discontent over failings in the process of allocating candidacy to federal legislative seat may create a level of discord that could mark the end of the party in the state. This possibility is not cast in iron though. But how well the party comes out of it will depend on how much lesson its leaders learnt from the ongoing PDP raucous d8scord. If not well handled, the APC may well begin to learn the verses of its swan song.
